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As the race to explore space intensifies, so does the problem of space junk. With millions of pieces of debris orbiting the Earth, scientists are sounding the alarm that the issue poses a serious threat to future space missions.
Earth’s low orbit, 2,000 kilometers or less from the Earth’s surface, is home to the vast majority of space debris. The debris consists of defunct satellites, upper launch stages, fragments from explosions and pieces left over when countries shoot missiles to take down their own satellites. Many pieces of debris are larger than tennis balls, and most no longer serve any functional purpose. Basically, there’s a lot of garbage flying around up there.
And this garbage is flying at astounding speeds.
Imagine you’re driving home from work, traveling 80 kilometers per hour when a small stone flies up, striking your windshield. It makes a loud noise, and later you notice a crack in the windshield. The velocity of both objects — the car and the rock — determines the level of damage.
Now imagine you’re traveling at over 25,000 kilometers per hour, and so is the stone. At this speed, collision with a stone would be catastrophic, but even something tiny can cause serious damage.
European Space Agency astronaut Tim Peak in 2016 noticed a crack in the observation window of the International Space Station. In a press release, Peak described a photo he took of the crack: “I am often asked if the International Space Station is hit by space debris. Yes — this is the chip in one of our cupola windows, glad it is quadruple glazed!”
The damage was caused by a rogue fleck of paint.
There are about 27,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters being monitored by the U.S. Department of Defense. More than 100 million smaller pieces fly around untracked. Any impact with other spacecraft, satellites or space stations could be devastating and in turn cause more debris, and so on and so on.
The chain reaction, theoretical at this point, is known as Kessler syndrome. Astrophysicist and one-time NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler proposed that at some point there will be so much debris in Earth’s low orbit that it will continue to crash and create more debris, eventually becoming autonomous and unstoppable and making future space travel impossible.
Though Kessler syndrome is an extreme example, it’s not impossible. Moog Professor of Innovation and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the University at Buffalo, John Crassidis, says he believes we will reach this point in this generation.
“I really think that we’ll be in trouble in 50 years or less if we keep putting objects up in space like we are doing now,” he tells KUST Review.
Though 50 years isn’t far off, more imminent risks exist to satellites and other spacecraft in Earth’s low orbit.
Crassidis, who works with NASA and the U.S. Air Force to monitor space debris, says the biggest risk is to humans — specifically to those doing extravehicular activities. “Debris is moving at 17,000 miles per hour. That can go right through a spacesuit, even a very tiny piece of debris,” he says.
Other risks exist for active satellites in Earth’s low orbit. This may not sound concerning but these satellites allow Earth dwellers to make calls on their iPhones, watch videos on TikTok, participate in Zoom meetings and make millions as YouTubers. So, if these satellites are knocked out by debris traveling over 25,000 kilometers per hour, Gen X, millennials, and well, pretty much everyone, could be in for a trip — not to space — but back in time.
Among other concerns are for the 10 individuals living on active space stations. There are two inhabited space stations in Earth’s low orbit — the International Space Station and China’s Tiangong space station. Space stations are protected by their outer shields from debris up to 1.5 centimeters in diameter, but other than that, it’s either evacuate or duck. Thus far, both have proved successful solutions.
Russia in 2021 launched a rocket at one of its own satellites as a test, creating more than 3,500 pieces of debris and putting those living on the International Space Station at risk. The astronauts were forced to move into their spaceship capsules docked on the station should they need to make a quick get-away. And in October 2022, the International Space Station had to be raised by 0.2 miles to avoid more fragments resulting from this test.
This evasive maneuver — with a price tag of about U.S.$1 million — was effective, but even a collision with a piece of debris between 1 and 10 centimeters in diameter could cause damage costing up to U.S.$2 million to fix. Crassidis says this is only one of more than 20 maneuvers the space station has performed to avoid large pieces of debris.
Though moving the space station is currently a feasible — albeit expensive — solution, experts are concerned that with the increasing volume of debris each year, a safe space environment will cease to exist.
And researchers have discovered that collisions aren’t the only environmental risk factor.
A 2023 study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found metallic particles consistent with materials used to build spacecraft within the world’s stratosphere. This is caused when defunct satellites and rocket bits vaporize as they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere.
BUT WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
While the United Nations holds guidelines for space-debris mitigation, there is no legislation in place to hold space explorers responsible for their mess. So, it’s basically down to innovation and doing the right thing.
“We can’t even get countries to follow United Nations Guideline Number 4: Avoid intentional destruction and other harmful activities. Our leaders need to start talking with each other. That’s the first step, but not all countries are doing that. We (the Americans), the Europeans and other countries do follow many of the guidelines,” Crassidis says.
So, while some governments are doing what they can to clean up their mess, start-up businesses are popping up to pick up the pieces. Take Japanese company Astroscale, for example.
Astroscale offers space-debris removal as a service. Space programs or private companies world-wide can hire it to collect debris and drag it into Earth’s atmosphere to burn up. Astroscale plans its first official removal mission to take place in 2025. The company is hoping to inspire a global movement of debris removal.
In the meantime, the European Space Agency has partnered with start-up Clearspace to launch a claw that will grab hold of space junk and pull it back into the atmosphere to burn up. The claw is expected to remove its first piece of debris in 2025.
But that may cause problems, too. The 2023 NOAA study found that the offset contributes to ozone depletion.
Until these projects become regular practice, Crassidis’ research focuses mainly on prevention by “trying to determine the characteristics of debris from unresolved images. These updated models can be used to better predict where the debris is in space, thereby helping to better determine the probability of collision with functioning satellites,” he says.
Crassidis and his colleagues are also working on a plan to recycle space debris but, “This technology is 15 to 20 years away from being practical.”
Crassidis says that one day there will be a practical and affordable solution to space debris.
“What is today’s science fiction is tomorrow’s reality. The best thing we can do is follow the U.N. guidelines, slow the growth of the debris, and then have technology catch up to clean it up,” he tells KUST Review.